Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Gold Fields 4Q gold production - 895,000 ounces

Gold Fields' fourth-quarter gold production should come in at the upper end of the previously forecast range, the South African miner said Tuesday.
The company expects to produce 895,000 ounces of gold and said production rose by 13 percent compared with the third quarter, with all regions performing well. Gold Fields has nine operating mines in South Africa, Ghana, Australia and Peru.
The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Aug. 5.
Shares of Gold Fields Ltd., based in Johannesburg, fell 12 cents to $13.66 with the broader market selling off more sharply.

Keep your eye on GFI, this particular stock presents potential swing trading opportunities. If you look at the history from March of this year, it has an upwards trend and a trading range around $1 from the lower and upper channels.

Monday, June 28, 2010

Van Eck Gold Miners ETF

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF is a way to invest in Gold Mining stocks and limits your risk to owning an individual company. The risks are much higher when owning an individual company stock and with the mining industry, it is much higher for various reasons. The Van Eck ETF currently holds a total of 31 Gold and Silver miners plus cash reserves.

Mining for precious metals obviously has numerous risks and a lot can happen during the mining process which makes individual companies subject to large price swings based on the latest news.  On the upside, you can reap the benefits of great 43-101 drill results, better overall yields and better than expected quarterly earnings. On the downside, a mine can flood or break down, the yields can be lower than expected, management can hedge their metals as the price increases. Management can also acquire other companies that may not benefit the shareholders for years.

Owning a diversified group of miners lowers your overall risk level and an if an individual company has issues that negatively impact their stock price, it will not have a large affect on the overall ETF's price.

One year chart of Van Eck's Gold Miners index GDX

Here is some information on the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF:

The Gold Miners ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index.

Symbol:  GDX
Average volume: 10.7M
Market Cap: 6.60B
Shares: 120.65M
Div/Yield: .11/.20
Inst own: .48%
Started: 05/06
Return since inception: 6.77%  (See their site for addition details)

Top 10 holdings:
Market Value (USD)
% of net assets
Barrick Gold Corp ABX US27,036,0551,252,580,428
Goldcorp Inc GG US20,299,641922,009,694
Newmont Mining Corp NEM US13,491,059833,335,799
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd AU US9,957,233441,603,284
Kinross Gold Corp KGC US20,613,818377,645,146
Lihir Gold Ltd LIHR US8,911,051349,669,641
Eldorado Gold Corp EGO US18,992,628349,084,503
Cia de Minas Buenaventura SA BVN US8,361,588337,891,771
Randgold Resources Ltd GOLD US3,403,673334,138,578
Gold Fields Ltd GFI US23,816,623333,909,054

For more information, visit their site at: VanEck

Friday, June 25, 2010

iShares IAU - 10-1 split

Are the SPDR GLD shares a little too expensive for you at $120+ ?  You can now purchase the 10-1 split adjusted iShares Comex Gold Trust IAU for ~$12.29 a share. (Closing price on 6/25/10)  

From the iShares site:

San Francisco, CA, June 11, 2010—BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) today announced that the Board of Directors of BlackRock Asset Management International Inc., sponsor of the iShares® COMEX® Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU/TSX: IGT) (the "Trust") has authorized a 10 for 1 split for shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 21, 2010, payable after the close of trading on June 23, 2010. The Trust shares will begin trading with split-adjusted pricing on the NYSEArca on June 24, 2010. The Trust, which is cross-listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, will commence trading on a split adjusted basis on TSX on June 17, 2010. Post-split shares are expected to be distributed to shareholders' accounts on June 28 2010, and shareholders are expected to see the change in their holdings sometime after June 28, depending upon their brokerage firm's procedures.

The 10-for-1 split will lower the share price and increase the number of outstanding shares. The total value of shares outstanding is not affected by a split.

Hypothetical example of 10-for-1 split:

PeriodNumber of Shares OwnedHypothetical Market Price/Share (U.S.$)Total Value (U.S.$)
Post split1,000$12$12,000
Shares of the iShares® COMEX® Gold Trust are expected to reflect, at any given time, the price of the gold owned by the Trust, less the Trust's expenses and liabilities. As of June 10, 2010, the Trust had U.S. $3.3 billion in total net assets.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Freeport-McMoRan declares dividend of .30 per share

Nice increase from $0.15 a share. 

From Freeport-McMoRan site:

PHOENIX, AZ, June 24, 2010 – Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) today declares a cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable on August 1, 2010 to holders of record as of July 15, 2010 for its common stock.
As previously announced in April 2010, FCX’s Board of Directors authorized an increase in the annual cash dividend on its common stock from $0.60 per share to $1.20 per share, payable quarterly at a rate of $0.30 per share. The declaration and payment of dividends is at the discretion of FCX’s Board of Directors and will depend on FCX’s financial results, cash requirements, future prospects, and other factors deemed relevant by the Board.
FCX is a leading international mining company with headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona. FCX operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum. FCX has a dynamic portfolio of operating, expansion and growth projects in the copper industry and is the world’s largest producer of molybdenum.
The company’s portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg mining complex, the world’s largest copper and gold mine in terms of recoverable reserves, significant mining operations in the Americas, including the large scale Morenci and Safford minerals districts in North America and the Cerro Verde and El Abra operations in South America, and the Tenke Fungurume minerals district in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Additional information about FCX is available on FCX’s web site at “www.fcx.com.”

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Silver (SLV) double upwards channel

This video shows a daily chart of the Silver ETF SLV going back to late 2008. You can see that it broke the main support line in early 2010 and it is now a resistance line with a lower upwards channel.

The main trend line intersects with the March 2008 high around mid July 2010. Will Silver (SLV) continue with to trend within this channel?

Monday, June 21, 2010

Gillian Tett, Americas new gold rush

Gillian Tett, the U.S. managing editor of The Financial Times talks about Gold, the current price run up, psychology, risks. Video from PSB.org (Public Broadcasting System)

Watch the full episode. See more Need To Know.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Quadruple top for Silver? Is SLV a good trading tool?

A chart of SLV shows that it has hit the ~$19.5 level 3 times since July, 2008.  Silver is now trending higher again and may hit that level again for a possible Quadruple top. Will Silver pierce that level and pass the high of March 2008 of $20.73?

Also, is SLV a good trading 'tool' ?

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Record HIGH for GOLD! $1262

Gold hit's a record high on Friday, 6/18/2010 of just over $1262 an ounce at ~12 noon NY time.   


The XGLD chart is from Nov 2009 to June 18th 2010. The $1225 high of Dec 3rd 2009 was pierced two times for a double top before a third time for the new high.  I would expect this rally to continue to a possible $1300, but then pull back again before further new highs in the 4th quarter of 2010. A higher consolidation trading range may be setup from $1250 to $1300 before the next breakout.

Traders may want to take profits near this level as the price closed on the upper Bollinger band. The 15 day simple moving average is at $1230 which should provide initial support when a pull back occurs.

The MACD Histogram has a positive tick which is indicating and upwards bias for the bulls.

The K line Stochastic is over 80 and the D line at ~64 for an 'over bought' area. If the Stochastics 'embeds' (both lines over 80 for 3 days), we may see a rally to the $1300 area.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Gold to $1875 an ounce, by ?

Here is a short video that has a Fibonacci algorithm on a weekly chart of Gold which suggests that the next major high will be $1875 an ounce.  Taken over the last 9 years from the low of 2001 to the high of 2010.

Leave me your prediction for the end of the year price...

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Silver to $32 an ounce

Here is a short video on a Fibonacci tool used on a chart of the World Silver index.  Based on the low in early 2000's and the high in 2008, the Fibonacci algorithm suggests that the next high will be at $32 an ounce.  When will it happen?  If I had to take a guess, it would be in late 2011 or 2012.

Leave me a comment on your thoughts.

Gold 2010 trend

Here is the 2010 chart for the price of Gold provided by Kitco.

You can see that the overall trend is still on the upside, even though we are in the summer months which is typically a seasonal low for Gold.  This year may be a bit different as far as the 'summer slump' for Gold due to the uncertainty of the financial stability of just about every country worldwide.

Pullbacks under 1200 may present buying opportunities for traders with a sell near 1250.

A yearly chart for Gold:

You can see on a yearly chart that the trend is up and that Gold continues to break into new highs. The high of 2009 on 12/3/09 of $1227 has been breached on 5/12/10 at $1249 and hit a record high on 6/8/10 at $1254.

Going forward, I would expect the same swings up and down through the summer months, then a possible breakout in late August. (Seasonal's)

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Denver Gold Group (Conference)

If you are interested in researching precious metal stocks and companies, check out the Denvergold Group website.  They have last years presentations (2009) for quite a few of the juniors, intermediate and senior gold companies. Listen to the CEO's and CFO's talk about their companies plans, acquisitions, development, production and goals for the 2010 year.

Denvergold Group (Homepage)

For their 2009 forum, go to:  Denver Gold Forum 2009  ,then onto 'Click here to visit webcast'.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

US Mint out of Silver Eagles in 2009 - 2010 still out

When I went to the US Mint website the other day and clicked on the American Silver Eagle product, the mint states 'Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins.'

I believe that this is an indicator of the Silver bull market that will be coming within a few years.  I believe that  Silver investors will continue to hold on to the shinny metal until the massive breakout that will happen due to the shortage of the metal.

Here is the short video regarding the mint's message:


Gold Silver Ratio, Coinage Act of 1792

 Here is a video that I made on the Coinage Act of 1792 and the Gold Silver Ratio.

I have heard more than one of the Gold bull's mention that the ratio will go back down under 20.  One mentioned that the ratio goes back down to 16/17 to 1 in every secular Gold bull market.

At 1250 Gold and a 16 to 1 ratio, Silver would be at $78 !   At the close last Friday, it is at $18.25.  Looks like it has a long way to go to the upside if the ratio were to come down...   Keep an eye on the ratio this year.

Gold Seasonals

Here is a short video on Gold Seasonals which focuses on the price appreciation/depreciation over the months throughout the year. The chart is from ZealLLC.com.

Gold price appreciation by month

Here is a short but interesting video that I made regarding the 'Gold price appreciation by month'. It is taken for the last nine years, so it's just an average. Remember that past performance does not reflect future performance.

Gold is money

For thousands of years, both Gold and Silver has been used as a monetary metal. People used bits of pure Gold to purchase and trade items of value. When fiat currency was started (paper money), in most cases, it was backed by a Gold standard.

In the early 1880's, the US dollar was backed by Gold in which you could trade in 1 dollar for 1.6 grams of Gold. This ratio would fluctuate until 1971 which is the year when president Nixon took the United States off of the Gold Standard.

The US Government was forced to print up more fiat currency for the Vietnam war which led to the devaluation of the dollar. As the dollar declined, it led to inflation. Because the US Dollar was devaluing, countries (Switzerland, France) demanded repayment of their loans in gold which depleted the US Gold reserves.

To stabilize the economy and curb skyrocketing inflation, President Nixon “closed the gold window” on August 15, 1971, ending convertibility between US dollars and gold.

If you have tracked the price of the US Dollar index from the early 2000 to now, you will see that is has been on a decline and the overall trend is down.

Here is a chart of Gold from 2000 to 2010 provided by Kitco:

When looking at the charts, you can see that over the past decade, Gold and the US Dollar have traded in opposite directions. This is not always the case, especially if you look at the past year (2009 to current 2010).

Many experts believe that there will be a decoupling of the US Dollar and Gold where they can both go up or down at the same time.

I suggest that people continue with their own research on this subject and think about investing a % of their savings into physical Gold and Silver. If the US Dollar continues it's decline due to government bail out packages and the general printing of fiat currency, inflation will become a major factor going forward.

An great ebook on Gold and Silver Investing that I have found can be found at GoldandSilverSecrets:Click Here!