Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Silver, you bought in January right?

During the month of January 2011, both the Gold and Silver markets corrected after last years end of the season run-up.  Last months correction looks like it presented a good entry into the Silver market for those waiting on the side line with reserve capital.
I did a brief video on the last 8 years of the Silver market which showed that 6 of the last 8 years had the Silver price lower in the first 5 months of the year. Based on that data, January 2011 could have produced the low for Silver for this year. Only time will tell if that is true or not as we still have 10.5 months to go.

Here is Feb 15th World Silver chart.

It is producing higher highs and higher lows since Jan 28th low of 26.30. Bullish
(Based on a Fibonacci drawn from the low in Nov to the high in Dec, the break low for January touched the 23.6 retracement/support level).
The price is trading above all three moving averages, but the 15 day is under the 50. This should crossover in a few days which will produce the bullish formation of the price above the 15, 50 and 100 in that order. Bullish
The MACD Histogram crossed over the 0 line on Feb 2nd - Bullish
Stochastics are 'embedded' (K&D line over 80), so the price action should continue to the upside. - Bullish.

The old high of 31.28 should be taken out within the next week or two and Silver should be on it's way to the next resistance point of 32, 33 or 35.

I missed out on AGQ last year (Double long Silver ETF), so I got a position in one of my accounts on Feb 2nd and 3rd. $7.5k in two weeks is not bad for all of my efforts. (I'm small time, a minnow in the ocean)   I also picked up a few Eagles to add a bit to my physical collection. (A very pretty coin)

There is a lot of buzz about the Silver shortage and backwardation. The Chinese are purchasing quite a bit of Gold AND Silver, so that will definitely place some pressure on the market. Add the European and US investors, Industrial demand, Hedge funds and a Short squeeze and we may see higher prices before the 2011 summer.

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