Tuesday, May 3, 2011

ZSL Silver QE2 401k

Many speculators were piling into ZSL, the double short Silver ETF as the run up was unsustainable. It really does not matter how much Silver pulls back if you are long physical, it will just present an oppurtunity to buy at a lower price.

ZSL closed above the 15 day moving average, the MACD and Stochastics are on the rise...

Will this slogan be correct this year? "Sell in May and go away, come back after Labor day".  It typically applies to the stock market, but it can be applied to both the Gold and Silver markets as well.  The summer months are typically slow for the metals based on historical data.  Will this year be different?  Possibly due to the dropping US Dollar index.

For those that invest in the miners and other metals related ETF's.  Keep your eye on the markets going forward as QE2 ENDs in JUNE.  Many believe that this program has propped up the financial markets and when it ends, there will be less speculative money to go into the market. 

After the TARP program ended in May 2010, the markets started pulling back until our Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke mentioned QE2 in August last year.  Look at any chart of the financial indexes or just about any commodity since August 2010 and you'll see a bullish chart.

If the S&P Index starts breaking towards the downside, I'm in the camp where the Gold and Silver shares will go down with it, even if Gold and Silver go up.  When people get margin calls, they will dump everything speculative that that includes the miners, especially the juniors and explorers.

I'll end with one other note, if you have a 401k, it would be best to keep an eye on the investments that you have. I have never heard of any 401k accounts with a short fund, so everyone is LONG in their 401k's.  That is a problem if the markets crash just like in 2008/2009.

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