Thursday, September 15, 2011

Gold and Silver -> trapped in trading range

Not much happening with both Gold and Silver as they are both in a trading range / pattern as seen on the daily charts for the past several weeks.

A fibonacci is drawn from the July low to the high produced last week.  The white box depicts the top of the range to the 50% retracement level which is around the $1700 level.  Gold may consolidate in this range until the end of this month for a potential breakout.  A breakout is needed to get the HUI index going again as the breakout last week looks like a 'fake out' now.  It's just a matter of time before the mining stocks start leading the physical metals.

Silver is also trapped in the trading range between the upper 30'es and the $42 area. A fibonacci retracement is drawn from the last run up to $48.82 (not seen on this chart) and the current trading range box is between the 61.8 to 23.6 areas.  If both Gold and Silver do not run up in September, I'm looking for a breakout to the upside in either Oct, Nov or Dec.

1 year return for Gold: 40.71%
Year to date return for Gold: 25.72%

1 year return for Silver: 92.32%
Year to date return for Silver: 28.53%

With those numbers, everyone holding the PM's should be very happy with their returns.  This is not a get rich quick scheme.  Everyone that has the patience to hold will be rewarded with spectacular returns. My 3rd phase estimation is between 2013 and 2015.


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