Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Silver: Breakout or breakdown?

3 year weekly chart of Silver (SLV in this case)

Observations: If the silver price continues to trade sideways to slightly up, the recent RSI low is higher than the previous low set around June last year. This gives the chart a rising RSI on a weekly basis. (If the price hold up)

The Silver price is clearly in a downtrend with support around the $26 level. A declining price with a rising RSI is a divergence in the short to mid term, this eventually suggests that the price will eventually rise, but when?  No one really knows for sure.

The weekly slow stocastics are oversold and may be at the beginning of a bullish D/K crossover.

Also noted is that the Silver price is closest to the 200dma since Feb 2010, over 3 years ago. (Not shown on the chart) The price at that time was in a one month downtrend, then returned to trade around the $18 level and six months later started the massive rise to 48+ into 2011.

Fundamentally and in my opinion, Silver is grossly undervalued.  Based on the US money supply, industrial demand, investor demand and the amount that is mined every year. 

With the Cyprus banking news (fiasco/robbery), many people in the European community may become a bit wary of their currency and where they keep their 'money'. This may be a hint of things to come with other countries??? Those that are proactive may be seeking a safe place to put their 'money' which is bullish for the precious metals. 

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