Monday, December 5, 2011

Waiting for Gold and Silver stocks to move up

is like watching paint dry over the last year plus.  Here is a weekly chart of the Amex HUI Gold bugs index which is in a consolidating range. (Blue box)

Major upper and lower trend lines are seen with the index in a long term uptrend. A fibonacci retracement is drawn from the 2003 rally.

The HUI has been in a consolidating range just over the fibonacci 261.8 level and will be approaching the lower trend line early next year.  If Gold moves to the upside in the first quarter of the year, Gold stocks may follow and send the HUI to the next fibonacci level of 423.6 or ~735.  (Currently at 561)

A move to the ~735 area on the HUI should move most Gold and Silver producers to the upside and to the next fib level on their respective charts.  All bets are off should the European debt crises crash the worldwide financial markets...  (Fundamentally, both Gold and Silver should go up with the current debt issues and the mining stocks should follow.  But with high frequency trading, hedge funds, leverage, manipulation, etc... you never know whats going to happen).

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