Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Gold and Silver stocks heading lower?

As if they aren't low enough, Gold and Silver stocks are at a multi year low based on the ETF GDX.  The GDX is similar to the HUI and XAU as it contains large to mid cap Gold and Silver stocks.

Here is a one year chart of the returns for GLD (representing Gold) and the GDX:

Gold has a 15% return and the GDX has a -21% return.

Here is a 5 year chart of the returns for GLD and GDX:

Gold has a 136% return and GDX has 11% return.  Why hasn't the Gold and Silver stocks kept up with the bullion?  Some say that the ETF's are to blame as they do not carry the high risk that the miners have.  Some may believe that Gold has hit a top and will only go down from here, so why invest in a Gold miner?

Physical metals are taxed as a collectible and at a higher rate (28%) than selling a stock / bullion ETF. Excerpt taken from Groco.com

Calculating Capital Gains Tax on the Sale of a Collectible

Uncle Sam takes a tax bite out of almost every asset sold and collectibles are no exception. Indeed, collectibles are currently subject to one of the highest rates of federal taxation on investment property. Capital gain from the sale of a collectible is taxed at 28 percent.
Here is the GDX divided into Gold bullion over the past 3 years:

You can easily see that the Gold / Silver stocks have significantly under-performed the physical bullion.  Some may say that it's best to only purchase physical bullion and that any paper asset is asking for trouble. As Rick Rule has mentioned in past seminars (Like the SF Hard Assets that I went to last November), you want to buy items when they are on sale, not at retail price.  
One way to approach the miners is accumulating a position in the GDX to spread out risk.  It is hard to pick the exact bottom or top, so dollar cost averaging into the ETF would be a good way to go if one believes that the miners will rally at some point in the future.

No comments:

Post a Comment