Friday, July 2, 2010

Swing lower = potential buying oppurtunity

Here is a 3 month chart of the World Gold Index with the following 6 indicators:
15 day Moving average in Yellow
50 day Moving average in Blue
100 day Moving average in Pink
Bollinger band
MACD Histogram

(Click on the chart for a larger view)

The chart is clearly in a downtrend as the price has closed below the 15 and 50 day moving average.
It is also under the Bollinger band.
The MACD Histogram bars are also getting larger to the downside.
The Stochastics K line has crossed over and is in the downwards direction.

Can this be a buying opportunity? In my opinion, not yet.  With the indicators in a downwards path, it's like trying to catch a falling knife. If XGLD continues to head down, it may be for only another day or two as the price will only stay below the bottom Bollinger band 2.5% of the time.

The 100 day moving average is at 1170 which should be a solid support level. If it breaks 1166, it will take out the low from 5/21/10.  The next support level would be the last break low at 1125.

If I were a swing trader, I would wait and watch before taking a position.

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